In den letzten Tagen ist mehrfach über Truppenbewegungen von Osten nach Westen im von Separatisten kontrollierten Gebiet in der Ostukraine berichtet worden. Die Mediendebatte konzentriert sich vor allem auf die Frage, ob die entsprechenden Rüstungsgüter aus Russland stammen. Aus unserer Sicht sind aber zwei andere Punkte entscheidend.
Erstens verhindern Russland und die Separatisten die im Minsker Protokoll vorgesehene Kontrolle der Grenze zwischen Russland und dem Separatistengebiet und machen dadurch eine Überprüfung der russischen Unterstützung (oder Nicht-Unterstützung) für die Separatisten unmöglich. Eine solche Überprüfung sollte hingegen im russischen Interesse sein, wenn Russland tatsächlich eindeutig seine Nichteinmischung beweisen will. Zweitens deuten die Truppenbewegungen auf eine geplante erneute Offensive der Separatisten hin, die den in Minsk vereinbarten Waffenstillstand komplett obsolet machen würde.
Wir dokumentieren im Folgenden Originalquellen zum Thema.
Die Redaktion der Ukraine-Analysen
Pressemitteilungen der Speziellen Beobachtermission der OSZE zu Truppenbewegungen
11. November 2014
The SMM observed an unmarked military convoy in the eastern outskirts of Donetsk city on 11 November 2014.
At 07:45hrs, on 11 November, three kilometres east of Donetsk city centre, the SMM observed a convoy of 43 unmarked green military trucks, with tarpaulin covers, moving in the direction of the city centre.
Five of the trucks were each towing 120mm howitzer artillery pieces. Another five were each towing partly-covered multi-launch rocket systems (MLRS).
9. November 2014
East of Donetsk city, in territory controlled by the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic”, the SMM observed two convoys of 17 trucks each. They included artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems. The convoys were moving west. This was the second day in a row that the SMM observed convoys in the eastern outskirts and territories of Donetsk city. (See SMM Spot Report 8 November.)
At 11:20hrs, in the area of Sverdlove (15km east of Donetsk city), the SMM observed a convoy of 17 unmarked, green ZiL (Moscow Likhachov Plant) trucks, moving west. Five of them were towing Grad multiple-launch rocket systems. Two were loaded with ammunition crates. The SMM did not see any individuals or persons in uniform travelling on these trucks.
At 11:35hrs, on the H-21 road near Zuhres (41km east of Donetsk city), the SMM observed another convoy, this one consisting of 17 unmarked, green KamAZ (Kama Automobile Plant) trucks, also moving west. Twelve of these were towing 122mm Howitzers. The SMM did not see any individuals or persons in uniform travelling on these trucks.
8. November 2014
In the city of Donetsk and in Makeevka (25km north-east of Donetsk city), in “DPR”-controlled territory, the SMM observed convoys of heavy weapons and tanks. At the time of reporting, the SMM could hear heavy, outgoing shelling to the north and northwest of the city’s outskirts, which had started at 14:45hrs.
At 13:55hrs, on the eastern outskirts of Makeevka (25km north-east of Donetsk), within territory under control of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”), the SMM observed a convoy of more than 40 trucks and tankers moving west on highway H-21.
Of these 19 were large trucks—Kamaz type, covered, and without markings or number plates—each towing a 122mm howitzer and containing personnel in dark green uniforms without insignia. Fifteen were Kraz troop carriers. The SMM was on the move and could therefore not ascertain the contents of these. The remaining six were small fuel tankers, fitted with cranes. The SMM observed an unmarked BTR armoured personnel carrier leading the convoy, with a tarpaulin over the gun.
At 15:20hrs, at the intersection of Leninskyi Street and Kuprin Street (7km south-west of Donetsk city centre) the SMM observed a convoy of nine tanks—four T72 and five T64—moving west, also unmarked.
Minsker Protokoll vom 5.9.2014 (unterschrieben von Vertretern der OSZE, der Ukraine, Russlands und der Separatisten)
Ausgehend von den Ergebnissen der Begutachtung und Diskussion der Vorschläge, die von den Teilnehmern der Konsultationen in Minsk am 1. September 2014 eingebracht wurden, hat die Dreiseitige Kontaktgruppe bestehend aus Vertretern der Ukraine, der Russischen Föderation und der Organisation für Sicherheit und Zusammenarbeit in Europa ein Einverständnis erreicht bezüglich der Notwendigkeit der Umsetzung folgender Schritte:
4. Gewährleistung einer permanent aktiven Überwachung der ukrainisch-russischen Staatsgrenze und ihre Überprüfung von Seiten der OSZE durch die Schaffung einer Sicherheitszone in den grenznahen Gebieten der Ukraine und der RF [Russischen Föderation].
Quelle: inoffizielle Übersetzung, Ukraine-Analyse Nr. 136, S. 7–8 <http://www.laender-analysen.de/ukraine/pdf/UkraineAnaly sen136.pdf>.
Wöchentliche Pressemitteilung der Speziellen Beobachtermission der OSZE bei den russischen Grenzposten Gukowo und Donezk, 12. November 2014
Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Russian Federation, 12 November 2014—As mandated, the Observer Mission (OM) is operating 24/7 at both BCPs. Overall cross-border traffic flows increased at both Border Crossing Points (BCPs). For the first time since late August, more people entered than left the Russian Federation (RF) at the two observed BCPs. The OM observed the highest number of persons in military-style clothing crossing the border in both directions, since the beginning of its mandate. The OM observed them crossing the border more often in groups than previously. They were formed also of a higher number of people, in one instance of 24 persons.
OM’s arrival, establishment and observation work
The OM is currently operating with 20 staff members, which includes 14 permanent international observers, 4 temporary international observers (who are replacing 6 observers currently on leave) and 2 administrative assistants.
Cross-border movements common to both BCPs
The profile of the people crossing the border remains unchanged and can be categorised as follows:
Families on foot or by car with a lot of luggage;
Elderly people with few bags;
Adults (usually of younger age) with no luggage or empty cars;
People wearing military-style clothes with or without backpacks.
The average number of entries/exits increased from 7,042 to 7,523 per day for both BCPs during the reporting period. For the first time since late August the majority of people crossed the border from Ukraine to the Russian Federation (RF). The average net flow, i.e. the balance of entries and exits, turned from minus 648 to (plus) 182 per day for both BCPs. During the previous week 4,537 left the RF for Ukraine, while this week 1,272 entered the RF from Ukraine. Donetsk BCP continued to experience more traffic than Gukovo BCP. The cross-border movements registered at both BCPs accounted for 37 percent of all entries/exits in the Rostov region. The majority of the vehicles crossing the border have number plates issued in the Luhansk region, including the long-distance coaches commuting between Luhansk and cities in the RF.
Common observations at the BCPs
The situation at both BCPs remained calm. The OM noticed that the RF border guard and customs service have tightened checks and controls at both BCPs. Sniffer dogs were used more frequently, vehicle scans by a mobile x-ray vehicle were performed on a regular basis, and coloured cards or slips were issued to pedestrians who entered the BCPs from Ukraine. In addition, concrete blocks around service booths have replaced sand bag walls. According to a border guard officer, reinforced protections had been requested months ago when combat started close to the border with shells falling in the territory of the RF. Only now they received the concrete blocks. The OM has seen more armed border guards at the BCPs, particularly during nighttime, than in the past weeks.
Due to the cold weather conditions, the number of people crossing the border and talking to the Observer Teams (OTs) continued to decrease. Those who crossed the border from Ukraine reported that the situation remained largely calm in the Luhansk region. However, there is a general impression that the situation is becoming more tense in the area. The number of small arms shootings and artillery fire reported to the OM has increased, e.g. from the areas of Stakhanov, Krasniy Luch, Dyakove and Stanitsya Luhanska. In general, the interlocutors blamed Ukrainian security forces for the resurge in violence; however, in most cases they have not witnessed the firing themselves. People from urban areas continue to worry about heating during winter as centralised heating systems have reportedly been destroyed in many places. Again, the OM observed numerous people bringing small generators from the RF to Ukraine, which are also being sold from trucks in the vicinity of the BCPs.
Regular local and long-distance bus connections continue to operate between the Luhansk region and cities in the RF.
During the reporting period, the OTs observed 665 men and women in military-style dress crossing the border in both directions. This is the highest number observed so far. These people have been crossing individually or in very small groups, but have recently also crossed in larger groups. On 7 November the OM observed a group of 24 persons in camouflage clothing that crossed by minibus from the RF to Ukraine at Donetsk BCP. These border crossings were made predominantly at Donetsk BCP in both directions. Several Cossacks were also observed by the OTs. The Cossacks are identified by their traditional fur hats, as well as by Cossack insignias. The observers did not see any of them carrying weapons.
As in previous weeks, the OM observed injured or sick persons crossing the border from Ukraine to the RF. The OM also observed the crossing of vans that were apparently assigned for the transport of deceased (see below).
At the two BCPs the OM did not observe any military movement, apart from vehicles of the RF border guard service. No aircraft activity was observed at or in the vicinity of the BCPs.
Observation at the Gukovo BCP
The traffic flows at Gukovo BCP decreased slightly compared to last week. A daily average of 2,506 entries and exits was recorded, which accounted for approximately twelve percent of all entries/exits in the Rostov region. The net flow was positive for the first time since the third week of August. A daily average of 63 people left Ukraine and entered the RF.
During the week, the OM observed a total of 35 persons in military-style clothing crossing the border at Gukovo BCP, 18 of them left for Ukraine while 17 entered the RF.
On 11 November the BCP was temporarily closed and evacuated. According to a border guard officer they had discovered two hand grenades in the luggage of a traveller. The OT could not observe whether this individual had been arrested. An EOD team arrived and gave its ‘all-clear’ shortly after.
In two instances on 5 and 7 November, the OTs heard small arms shooting from a nearby firing range on Ukrainian territory, which was already mentioned in previous updates.
The OM observed continued high numbers of dumper trucks transporting coal from the Luhansk region to the RF. As reported previously, the observers saw RF customs officers verifying that the trucks were empty while leaving the RF.
Observation at the Donetsk BCP
During the reporting period, the activity at the Donetsk BCP increased slightly. The daily average of 5,018 entries and exits accounted for approximately 25 percent of all entries/exits in the Rostov region. The net flow turned from 457 exits to Ukraine to 119 entrances to the RF on average per day. The total number of border-crossings at Donetsk BCP continued to be almost double that of Gukovo BCP.
The OT observed 630 persons in military clothing crossing the border at Donetsk BCP individually and in groups, mostly to Ukraine.
On 11 November, the OM observed a van marked with signs “gruz 200” [“Cargo 200” which is a well-known Russian military code used for “military personnel killed in action”] crossing from the RF to Ukraine and returning several hours later.
Minsker Memorandum vom 19.9.2014 (unterschrieben von Vertretern der OSZE, der Ukraine, Russlands und der Separatisten)
7. Ab dem Beschluss dieses Memorandums gilt ein Flugverbot für Kampfflugzeuge und ausländische unbemannte Luftfahrzeuge (Drohnen) – mit Ausnahme von Drohnen, die die OSZE-Beobachtermission einsetzt – entlang der gesamten Kontaktlinie in der mindestens 30 Kilometer breiten Waffenstillstandszone.
Quelle: inoffizielle Übersetzung, Ukraine-Analyse Nr. 137, S. 30 <http://www.laender-analysen.de/ukraine/pdf/UkraineAnalysen137.pdf>.
CEPI Ukraine Watch (10.11.2014)
OSCE, Ukraine, Russia holding trilateral meeting in Donetsk: Representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE convened in Donetsk on Nov. 5 to discuss the fulfilment of the Minsk agreements. OSCE plans to expand its monitoring mission in eastern Ukraine by deploying up to 500 monitors there, including 350 in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, deputy chief of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine Alexander Hug said. The conflicting sides have failed to agree upon a delimitation line, the head of the OSCE SMM said.
Ukraine imposes passport controls around rebel area: Ukraine’s Border Guard Service has announced that anyone crossing in or out of areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country will have to show a passport.
The sixth Russian “humanitarian convoy” has arrived in Donbas: "We have no information about the contents of the cargo," National Security and Defense Council spokesman has said. OSCE observers have no authority to examine Russian humanitarian aid, mission deputy head has said. Spot report by OSCE OM, 2 Nov 2014: Russian convoy of 32 vehicles crossed into Ukraine and returned back through Donetsk Border Crossing Point.
Pressemitteilung der Speziellen Beobachtermission der OSZE zum Beschuss einer Drohne durch Separatisten (3.11.2014)
At a location 2.5km NE of Shyrokyne village (17 km E of Mariupol and east of the line of contact) [d. h. im von Separatisten kontrollierten Gebiet, Anm. d. Red.], an SMM Unarmed Aerial Vehicle (UAV)—at a height of 5,000 feet—spotted an armoured personnel carrier (APC) and two Ural trucks at what appeared to be a checkpoint at 13.05hrs on 2 November.
At 13.11hrs, a person in camouflage uniform—standing close to a civilian truck parked approximately 150m from the APC and Urals—was seen to point a man-portable air defence system (Man-Pad) at the SMM UAV. He did not fire. He instead loaded the Man-Pad onto the civilian truck. A canvas covering on the back of the truck was removed, revealing a truck-mounted, anti-aircraft gun (probably a ZU-23), which immediately fired numerous rounds at the SMM UAV, none of which hit it.
The SMM UAV left the area, landing safely at 13.54hrs.
Pressemitteilung der Speziellen Beobachtermission der OSZE (4.11.2014)
At 13.01hrs and again at 13.19hrs the SMM UAV was subjected to serious electronic jamming while flying over “DPR”-controlled Chermalyk (40km NE of Mariupol). Initial analysis of the SMM UAV flight log data indicated that the SMM UAV was subjected to military-grade GPS jamming. The Ukrainian Air Operations Liaison Officer to the “Anti-Terrorism Operation” (“ATO”) headquarters in Sector “M”, who was immediately contacted by the SMM UAV Team, told the SMM at 13.24hrs that there was no jamming by the Ukrainian forces. The SMM UAV left the area and landed safely. This is the third serious interference with the movement of the SMM UAV and is an impediment to the fulfilment of the Mission’s mandate.
Pressemitteilung der Speziellen Beobachtermission der OSZE (7.11.2014)
The existence of military grade jamming capacities within Donetsk region, as used on 3 November against the SMM unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), remains a substantial concern for UAV flights. Following a flight risk assessment, the SMM UAV was not deployed on 6 November.
Von der Speziellen Beobachtermission der OSZE allein am 11. und 12. November 2014 dokumentierte Kampfhandlungen in der Ostukraine
On 11 November the SMM observed the transfer of four wounded Ukrainian soldiers by the “Lugansk People’s Republic” (“LPR”) to the Ukrainian military in Shchastya (20km north of Luhansk). The soldiers were transported in two ambulances, and were escorted by “LPR” armed personnel and “LPR traffic police”.
At Verkhnya Vilkhova (30km north-east of Luhansk), the SMM heard shelling coming from the area of Stanytsia Luhanska (25km north-east of Luhansk). In Kolijadivka (46km north of Luhansk), the SMM heard outgoing and incoming artillery fire, including several rounds of Grad, from the south. Local people told the SMM that the shelling was taking place in Shchastya and Stanytsia Luhanska.
On 11 November a member of an irregular armed group affiliated with the “LPR” in Krasnodon (50km south-east of Luhansk) told the SMM that there was ongoing antagonism between the “LPR” in Krasnodon and the “LPR” in Luhansk, resulting in a fire-fight between the two sides and the brief “detention” of Luhansk-based “LPR” personnel.
In Kam’yanka (62km south of Donetsk), the SMM heard five mortar rounds explode approximately two kilometres to the north.
The SMM examined the separate Ukrainian and Russian logbooks, noting that both had recorded the same incidents in the previous 48 hours, namely artillery and mortar shelling at Hranitne (57km south of Donetsk) at 08:00hrs on both 11 and 12 November from the area of Hryhorivka (6km south-east of Hranitne).
At a Ukrainian military CP two kilometres south of Maiors’k (45km north of Donetsk), the SMM heard three single sniper rounds, fired at the CP from a location south-east of it.
The SMM visited Mikhailovka (30 kilometres north-west of Luhansk), controlled by Ukrainian forces and at 11:30hrs heard two outgoing artillery rounds from the south-west in the direction of Shchastya and Petrivka.
The SMM met with the Ukrainian head of the Mariupol Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) who reported a large explosion in the Azov Sea, around 20 nautical miles east-southeast of Mariupol, possibly in the waters of the Russian Federation, which was also heard by the SMM at approximately 12:00hrs.
The SMM went to a Ukrainian checkpoint (CP) in the vicinity of Kramatorsk and spoke to Ukrainian personnel who said that on 9 November, at 11:43hrs, there was incoming shelling from the direction of Kamyanka (3 to 4 kilometres to the south of Olkhvatka mine). The shelling resulted in three Ukrainian casualties: two servicemen killed and one grievously wounded. The SMM were shown the head part of the shell as well as another shell stuck in the ground. Soldiers said that different types of ammunition were used, ranging from standard shells to ones carrying offensive, inflammable substances and shrapnel.
The SMM went on to visit a Ukrainian CP on the road to Horlivka where at 13:00hrs it heard two volleys of 122mm rounds (eight and twelve rounds respectively). In the SMM’s assessment, the rounds were fired from BM-21 Grad systems. According to the Ukrainian CP commander, the rounds were fired from the direction of Horlivka which is approximately 12km away. It is unknown where the rounds landed.
Quelle: Pressemitteilungen der Speziellen Beobachtermission der OSZE (12. und 13.11.2014), <http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126628>, <http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126705>.